A new report by Eunomia, commissioned by the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) and launched at COP29 this week, shows that a 40% reduction target in virgin plastics by 2040 would be an important enabler for climate impact reduction for the plastics industry, but it may not be enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

The study, Aligning the Global Plastics Treaty with 1.5°C, was commissioned by the EIA after INC-4 in April this year, where Rwanda and Peru proposed a global target to reduce virgin plastic production by 40% by 2040 relative to a 2025 baseline (40×40).

The new research explores how a 40×40 approach would impact CO2 emissions by 2050 by modelling both business-as-usual (BAU) demand and reduced-demand scenarios. The analysis shows that reducing virgin plastic production by 40% would be a significant positive step, as it could fuel big improvements in recycling and significant reduction in overall demand. This would need to be accompanied by substantial decarbonisation of the raw material and production processes for plastics.

Here are some of the key findings in the report:

  • Achieving 40×40 requires a reduction in demand of 35% – 269Mt annually – compared to BAU by 2040, which aligns with a <1.7°C carbon budget.
  • Without measures to reduce demand, 40×40 is likely to be unachievable, as it would require a minimum global recycling rate of 63%.
  • Plastics demand must peak by 2025, with strong action beyond recycling essential. Delays risk climate goals as half the plastics carbon budget may be spent by 2025; the next five years are therefore crucial.

Simon Hann, Eunomia’s LCA specialist and author of the report, commented: “Our research over recent years shows that aligning with the Paris Agreement requires swift and decisive action from the plastics industry, and that continued demand growth is likely to be counterproductive. This analysis finds that limiting virgin plastics production could be a pivotal step in bridging the gap between current conditions and necessary targets. Such an agreement would signal a strong commitment to addressing this challenge directly.”

You can download the full report here: https://eunomia.eco/reports/aligning-the-global-plastics-treaty-with-1-5c/