Eunomia Research & Consulting has published new research for international climate advocacy organisation Madre Brava, demonstrating how UK food retailers can significantly reduce supply chain emissions while potentially lowering costs by shifting towards plant-rich diets.
The analysis focuses on emissions from Forest, Land and Agriculture (FLAG) activities, which account for around 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions are a critical priority for retailers working to meet Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) commitments, particularly as most remain off track to achieve their near-term targets – especially across high-impact categories such as meat and dairy.
Eunomia’s research explores how retailers can close this gap through a combination of interventions, including dietary shifts, improved agricultural practices, and reductions in food waste. Among these, changes in consumption patterns – specifically a transition towards more plant-based foods – emerge as the most impactful lever for short-term emissions reductions.
The modelling shows that a moderate shift towards plant-based protein consumption could deliver approximately 64% of the total emissions reductions required for retailers to meet their 2030 SBTi FLAG targets. Under this scenario, plant-based foods would make up 29% of protein sales, while plant-based dairy alternatives would account for 32% of dairy sales. Notably, this approach was also identified as the most cost-effective pathway, with the potential to reduce costs when supported by appropriate pricing and product strategies.
This finding is particularly significant given the current economic climate, where retailers are facing sustained cost pressures alongside supply chain disruption.
Star Molteno, Principal Consultant at Eunomia, commented: “The analysis shows that shifting consumption to lower-carbon diets is essential. More interestingly, the research shows this does not imply a cost burden to retailers, but could potentially save money, which is vital at a time when cost-of-living pressures remain high and supply chains are under strain. While reducing food waste and improving agricultural practices remain important, they won’t be enough on their own to meet short-term targets.”
While plant-rich diets offer the fastest route to near-term emissions reductions, the research emphasises that agricultural improvements and food waste reduction remain essential components of a longer-term decarbonisation strategy. These measures contribute not only to emissions reductions over time, but also deliver wider benefits such as enhanced biodiversity, improved soil health, and greater resilience across farming systems and supply chains.
The study draws on a comprehensive integration of datasets covering food production emissions, waste generation, and decarbonisation measures. By applying SBTi’s Corporate Standard and FLAG guidance directly to retail supply chains, Eunomia has developed a modelling approach that reflects the operational realities of Scope 3 emissions and provides practical, actionable insights for retailers.
Although the analysis is focused on the UK grocery sector, its implications extend across the broader agri-food value chain, including manufacturers, brands, processors, wholesalers and foodservice businesses. It also offers important insights for policymakers seeking to accelerate emissions reductions across the food system.
The full report, Cost-minimal FLAG Emissions Mitigation Roadmap for UK Food Retailers, is available to download via Madre Brava here.
For organisations looking to meet SBTi targets, reduce Scope 3 emissions, or develop a credible net zero supply chain strategy, Eunomia’s team can provide tailored support to help design and implement effective decarbonisation pathways.