Our Sustainable Food Systems & Diets Lead, Isabelle Williamson, explores the trade-offs and opportunities facing businesses across the food value chain – from food waste and regenerative land use to resilient supply chains and emerging technologies.
A shifting narrative: from sustainability to security
Land use change for food production is one of the most significant drivers of the climate and biodiversity crises, contributing around 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions (the whole food system contributes towards 34% of carbon emissions). Yet the narrative around the sustainability of food systems is changing rapidly towards food security.
The recent European heatwave has provided a stark reminder that food security can no longer be treated as a future challenge. Scientists are warning that increasingly frequent extreme weather events are already affecting harvests, reducing yields and contributing to rising food prices. Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit found that three of the five worst cereals and oilseed harvests on record in England have occurred this decade, while climate change contributed to around a third of food price increases in 2023. Experts now warn that repeated crop failures could increasingly threaten UK food security.
At the same time, the recent UK heatwave exposed vulnerabilities elsewhere in the food system. Supermarkets experienced refrigeration failures as extreme temperatures placed pressure on ageing cold-chain infrastructure, disrupting the availability of fresh and chilled products and highlighting how climate impacts can affect food supply beyond the farm gate.
These events reinforce a growing reality: food system resilience is becoming a matter of economic and national security, not only sustainability.
This shift is reflected in the UK’s Land Use Framework (LUF) and Part 1 of the National Food Strategy, both of which signal a more integrated approach to food production, land use, and environmental outcomes. At the same time, more than 100 UK organisations have called for a Good Food Bill, advocating for legally binding targets to improve food security, increase domestic fruit and vegetable production, and provide businesses with the certainty needed to invest in more resilient supply chains.
Set against this policy backdrop is a fundamental challenge: feeding everyone nutritious, sustainably produced and affordable food, while staying within planetary boundaries, and strengthening resilience in an increasingly volatile global system.
The complexity of land use, production, and global trade
The difficulty lies in navigating competing priorities. Intensive agriculture can deliver high yields from less land, supporting food security goals, but often at the expense of soil health, biodiversity, and long-term resilience. More regenerative approaches can rebuild natural capital yet may require more land – risking displacement effects if demand remains unchanged.
This is compounded by the global nature of food supply chains. UK production decisions do not exist in isolation – changes can shift environmental and economic pressures to other regions, many of which are more exposed to climate risks such as drought, flooding, and water scarcity, as well as shocks from conflict and trade wars. Eunomia’s work with the LUNZ Hub highlights how focusing solely on territorial emissions can obscure the complexity of these global dynamics.
Take beef as an example. Reducing UK production may lower domestic emissions, but if consumption remains stable, production may simply move to less efficient and highly biodiverse systems elsewhere. A more effective approach requires aligning production, consumption, and trade – viewed through a holistic lens of global efficiency as well as national resilience.
High-impact levers: waste, productivity, and innovation
While the challenge is complex, there are clear and actionable levers for change. One of the most immediate and underutilised is food waste reduction. Globally, around one-third of food is lost or wasted. Every tonne of food wasted represents wasted land, water, energy and economic value. Improving food system efficiency through waste reduction is therefore both a sustainability and food security imperative.
From Eunomia’s work with Madre Brava, we know that reducing food waste is one of the most powerful, and cost-effective, levers available to retailers to meet FLAG (Forest, Land and Agriculture) targets.
Evidence also shows dietary change has high potential for emissions reduction. Additionally, dietary shifts – particularly involving consumption of plant-based proteins such as beans, pulses and vegetables, also align with both food security and public health ambitions outlined in the proposed Good Food Bill. However, dietary shift remains politically sensitive and behaviour change takes time.
Alongside this, improving agricultural productivity in ways that protect natural capital will be essential. This means combining techniques such as precision agriculture and innovation with regenerative practices that maintain soil health, water quality, and biodiversity. Emerging technologies will play a role too. Alternative proteins, precision fermentation, and controlled environment agriculture can help reduce reliance on imported commodities and strengthen domestic supply chain resilience, even if they complement rather than replace conventional farming.
From policy to action: what this means for business
Recent harvest concerns and heat-related disruptions across the food supply chain demonstrate that food security is no longer a hypothetical climate risk – it is a present-day business challenge. From agricultural production and imports through to storage, distribution and retail infrastructure, the resilience of food systems is under growing pressure and insurance providers are taking note.
Policy direction is strengthening, but delivery will depend heavily on private sector leadership. The Land Use Framework and Food Strategy provide important signals, and the proposed Good Food Bill would introduce the long-term certainty needed to unlock investment.
The UK government has also announced several relevant targets and strategies including:
- A Farming Roadmap to 2050, giving farmers greater clarity to invest, adapt and build a profitable, productive, sustainable and resilient future.
- A national programme to treble the volume of surplus food made available for redistribution across the UK.
- Regulations to strengthen action on deforestation, aligning with the EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR).
- A commitment for at least half of all publicly procured food to be produced locally or certified to higher environmental standards.
- The introduction of mandatory healthy food sales reporting for large food businesses under The 10 Year Health Plan for England.
The government is also expected to publish a Horticulture Strategy and the National Food Strategy or ‘Good Food Cycle’.
Crucially, the transition will require moving beyond a sole focus on achieving territorial net zero when it comes to land management decisions. A broader approach – considering the role of the consumer, global impacts, and system resilience – is essential if food security and climate goals are to be achieved together.
For businesses, this creates both risk and opportunity. Priority actions should include:
- Accelerating food waste reduction, through better data, supply chain collaboration, and redistribution models.
- Building more resilient supply chains, by diversifying sourcing, reducing exposure to climate risk, and supporting domestic production where appropriate.
- Reforming product portfolios, increasing the availability, appealability, and affordability of healthier, lower-impact options and UK-grown ingredients such as vegetables, pulses, and grains.
- Investing in innovation, including alternative proteins and emerging technologies.
- Engaging in policy development, supporting clear, consistent regulation that enables long-term planning and investment.
Food system transformation now sits at the intersection of climate action, economic resilience, public health, and national security. Those organisations that act early – prioritising waste reduction, supply chain resilience, dietary shift, and innovation – will be best placed to navigate the transition and lead in a rapidly changing landscape.
At Eunomia, we work with organisations across the food value chain to turn this complexity into practical, scalable strategies. Through our natural economy consulting services, we look at resilience and adaptation through the lenses of carbon, water, land and nature, helping to deliver food systems that are truly sustainable.