This report for the Environmental Investigation Agency models whether a virgin plastic production reduction target of 40% by 2040 (40×40) could keep the plastics industry within a 1.5°C carbon budget.
The research was commissioned after Rwanda and Peru proposed a global target to reduce 40% of virgin plastic production by 2040 (40×40) at INC-4 in April 2024. The report outlines the methodology used to predict how the global economy would respond to a 40×40 target, including modelling different scenarios based on business-as-usual (BAU) demand and reduced-demand scenarios.
Key findings include:
- Achieving 40×40 requires a reduction in demand of 35% – 269Mt annually – compared to BAU by 2040, which aligns with a <1.7°C carbon budget.
- Without measures to reduce demand, 40×40 is likely to be unachievable, as it would require a minimum global recycling rate of 63%.
- Plastics demand must peak by 2025, with strong action beyond recycling essential. Delays risk climate goals as half the plastics carbon budget may be spent by 2025; the next five years are therefore crucial.
The report was launched at COP29 in November 2024, ahead of the INC-5 plastic treaty negotiations later this month.
