Our new study for the International Aluminium Institute has revealed that many of the world’s core material industries—aluminium, steel, copper, container glass, and PVC—are not on track to meet the carbon budgets required for a 1.5°C future.
Building on our previous decarbonisation pathway work, this report applies a consistent methodology to compare the global value chains of these five key materials against climate-aligned targets.
Key findings include:
- The next five years are critical. Without a steep drop in CO₂ emissions this decade, staying within 1.5°C budgets becomes increasingly unlikely.
- Technology is necessary, but not sufficient. While new low-carbon production technologies are essential, they must be commercially viable and rapidly deployed by 2030.
- Demand reduction is essential. Current industry pathways largely overlook the role of reducing material consumption—a gap that must be addressed head-on.
- Closed-loop recycling can help but will not compensate for the carbon intensity of primary production unless paired with aggressive decarbonisation.
- Geography will define outcomes. China’s energy transition, in particular, will have disproportionate global impact. Regional differences also present opportunities for more climate-conscious sourcing.
Material-specific insights include:
- Aluminium and copper benefit from being largely electrified—but this makes access to clean electricity a critical constraint.
- Steel and glass will require a shift from coal and gas to electrified or hydrogen-based production, including major retrofitting or complete technology swaps.
- PVC may face a more fundamental transformation, needing a move away from fossil-based feedstocks to bio-based alternatives—something not yet fully embraced by the industry.
The report concludes that current net zero roadmaps—where they exist—are fragmented, inconsistent, and unlikely to meet climate goals unless paired with demand-side measures, stronger policy support, and urgent investment in infrastructure.
“There is no silver bullet here. The material transition will require not only innovation, but uncomfortable changes in how we produce, use, and consume resources,” said Simon Hann, Principal Consultant. “Time is limited—and the carbon budget even more so.”
