The Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) commissioned Eunomia to model global plastic pollution scenarios, analysing how different levels of international action on plastic production and consumption could shape future environmental outcomes. The research examines the impact of coordinated policy measures versus business-as-usual trajectories on plastic waste, greenhouse gas emissions, and global material flows.
Eunomia’s modelling underpins EIA’s latest report, ‘Bending the Curve’, which explores how plastic production, consumption, and waste generation evolve under varying degrees of international cooperation. Using country groupings based on observed dynamics in the Global Plastic Treaty negotiations, s, the study provides evidence-based insights into how coordinated action can significantly reduce plastic pollution and emissions.
Its findings explore four potential pathways forward on plastic production:
- Business-as-usual (BAU): Continued growth in plastic production and waste due to a lack of upstream policy measures
- Coalition of the Willing: A group of high-ambition countries implements restrictions on polymer production and consumption from 2030
- Coalition of the Willing+ China: Expanded participation including China, a key player in global plastic production, consumption, and trade
- Coalition of the Willing + China + Middle Countries: Broader global alignment including major emerging markets such as Brazil, India, and South Africa
The modelling demonstrates that stronger international coordination delivers substantial environmental benefits, but even partial participation significantly reduces plastic production, waste leakage, and climate impacts:
- Coalition of the Willing: Global plastic production decreases by 16–18% compared to business as usual, with some displacement effects
- Coalition of the Willing + China: Production declines by up to 38%, alongside major reductions in waste and greenhouse gas emissions
- Coalition of the Willing + China + Middle Countries: Production falls by approximately 45% to around 420 million tonnes by 2040, mismanaged plastic waste is reduced by over 50%, and cumulative emissions decrease by more than 10 gigatonnes of CO₂e
These findings highlight the role international cooperation under the UN Global Plastics Treaty can play to curb plastic pollution, reduce climate impacts, and accelerate the transition to a circular economy.
